6.1 Early Predictions
In the early '70s several studies were made of the
future educational technology in general, and CAI in
particular, with 1980 to 2000 as the target prediction
dates. The most well-known of these studies was published
by the Carnegie Commission [16]. In this study
the Commission predicted both widespread acceptance
of educational technology by 1980 and the availability
of a large quantity of quality courseware. Further, they
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predicted that by that time, new professions for persons
engaged in creating and developing instructional materials
on the nation's campuses would have emerged. As
indicated throughout this paper, however, widespread
acceptance and use of CAI has not yet occurred.
Two other studies also independently predicted significant
increases in the use of CAI in higher education.
The first used community college representatives and
persons from computer-related industries active in CAI
(40). The other study was based on faculty response from
the nineteen-campus California State University and
Colleges [4]. The Luskin study [40] predicted that the
major obstacles to the use of CAI would be resolved by
1987, resulting in general acceptance and use of CAI in
higher education by that time. Ames in turn [4] found
the CSUC faculty predicting a 270 percent increase in
CAI usage from 1976 to 1980. Although the accuracy of
the Luskin study predictions cannot yet be assessed,
personal observations by the authors of the use of CAI
within the CSUC system indicates increased usage, but
probably not to the extent predicted in the Ames study.
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