Future for下面的文章与本博的第一篇浮动频率分析贴文：沪市市盈率的浮动频率分析在同一天发出。EDELSON先生自己并没有把他的分析方法称为浮动频率分析，我是根据他发的图形作出的判断，也根据他文中的陈述看，他的分析方法与本博所用方法完全一致。要点我做了一些翻译和品论。Stocks, Dollar andStock-Markets / FinancialMarkets 2010 Mar 08, 2010 - 10:38 AMBy: Larry_Edelson
Readers love my cycles approach to the markets because it letsthem peek into the future paths of market action in variousassets.
So in this issue, I’ll give you an updated glimpse into thefuture of some key markets using cycle analysis — the historicalstudy of the internal rhythms and hidden forces that truly drivethe markets. It’s the best forecasting method I know of.
I’ll cover what’s foremost on readers’ minds: The Dow JonesIndustrials, the dollar, and gold. Then, I’ll show you a startlingnew forecast.
First, the broad stock markets:
As many of you already know, my work on cycles caught the bigMarch bottom last year, to the tee, and also projected a rally intoJanuary 2010.
That forecast was right on the money, and, we took advantage ofit racking up loads of profits in several of my suggestedinvestments to capitalize on the rally.
So what now for the Dow, the S P 500, the broadU.S. stock markets?
Consider the following two charts of the dominant 24- and40-month trading cycles, using the broad-based S P500 index.标普500指数的24个月和40个月循环周期。
The first chart shows you the 24- and 40-month cyclesseparately, while the second chart shows you the same two cyclesbut as a single synthesized, or combined, projection for theS P 500.第二幅图是第一副图中的两个正弦波曲线的叠加曲线。
Looking at the first cycle chart of the S P 500,you will notice that the 24-month trading cycle is now pointingdown. This is the same cycle that gave birth to the sharp declinein mid-January/early February that saw the Dow plunge from 10,729on January 19, to 9,835 on February 5.
However, the 40-month cycle has not yet topped out. So what didthe market do? It has rallied back, to as high as 10,469 as I penthis column. And, it may even move to a slight new high in theweeks ahead, as the 40-month cycle is not due to top until lateApril/early May.40个月循环的高点指向四月底或5月初，很快就可以看到验证，也对A股市场有间接影响。
From there on out, though, we should see both the 24- and40-month cycles exert a strong downward bias to the market thatlasts for up to a full year, with no abating in selling pressureuntil April 2011.2011年4月标普才能见到低点，即从2010年5月初一直下跌。或者说美股下半年都没有行情！
That does not mean we will see a re-test of the March 2009 lowsat 6,469 in the Dow. It’s too soon to say. But I would not besurprised to see the Dow fall at least as low as 9,000, beforebeginning to recover again going into 2012. 道指跌幅至少可能见到9000点。
Now look at the second chart above, the composite 24- and40-month cycle in the S P 500. It confirms theindividual components of these important trading cycles, showing ahigh due in May of this year, followed by a decline into May2011.
So what can you learn from these two charts? How should youposition your investing and trading for the months ahead?
First, that the downside in the broad stockmarkets right now is still limited, due to the 40-month cyclethat’s still rising. So, I would not be aggressive yet on the shortside of the markets.
Second, the broad stock markets are, however,getting close to an important top. So, if you’re long the marketand have profits, I would strongly consider grabbing as many ofthose profits as you can, much like I’ve done for you here in thepast few editions of my column.
Third, I would prepare to soon short the broadmarkets, via inverse ETFs, such as the ProShares ShortTrust S P 500 (SH), an inverse ETF you canbuy that effectively shorts the market for you.
What about all the bearish news out there right now? Thesovereign debt crisis, the plunging currencies in Europe, therenewed collapse of housing sales, and more? Don’t they scream SELLright now?
No, they don’t. Keep in mind that news should never be used totime your trading and investing. After all, how many times have youbought a stock in anticipation of positive earnings … the earningswere announced and beat expectations … and yet, the stock fell outof bed?
Or conversely, how many times have you seen a stock you expectedto fall based on bad news, and instead, the stock skyrockets?
If you’re like the average investor, you’ve seen that kind ofsupposedly illogical market behavior hundreds or even thousands oftimes.
The bottom line is that markets and individualsecurities and asset classes follow their own unique trading cyclesand rhythms, and if you try to time your investing and tradingbased on news alone, or even pure fundamental analysis, you willnever make any decent money in the markets, let alone keep thatmoney.
The only, truly accurate and profitable way to invest in themarkets is to understand and quantify the markets differingpersonalities, which is what the rigorous study of market cyclesdoes for you.
Right now, for instance, although we are starting to see morenegative news come to the forefront (as compared to the last nineor 10 months where the market was rallying), I can assure, thenegative news you are hearing will pale in comparison to the newsthat will come out in the months ahead as the 40-month cycle forstocks turns down.
Now, let’s take a look at the U.S. dollar cyclechart:美元指数 |
